Will Nigeria’s average crude oil production exceed 1.60 million barrels per day (bpd) during July 2026, according to OPEC’s monthly oil market report?

Outcome: YES

How this forecast is settled

Will OPEC’s July 2026 report show Nigeria producing above 1.60 million barrels per day? Higher output from improved security and investment could push production above this level, but operational disruptions remain a risk.

Resolution

Yes, Nigeria's average crude oil production surpassed 1.60 million barrels per day, averaging 1.56 million bpd of pure crude and reaching approximately 1.74 million bpd when including condensates, successfully exceeding its OPEC quota.The July 2026 OPEC report released on July 13, 2026, evaluated Nigeria's performance for the previous month. According to official figures published by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria's crude-only output reached a 74-month peak of 1.56 million bpd in June 2026.

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