Will voter turnout in the Osun governorship election exceed 40%?

Outcome: YES

How this forecast is settled

Will more than 40% of registered voters participate in the Osun governorship election? With the previous election already around 42% and the 40% threshold relatively low, Yes appears reasonably likely, although the declining turnout trend makes this a closer forecast than it first appears.

Resolution

The Osun governorship election was held on 15 August 2026. INEC listed 2,339,233 registered voters for the election. Early results reported that about 45% of registered voters in the areas already collated had voted

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