Naira to dollar: where Nigerians expect the exchange rate to go
Forecasts on the naira’s official (NFEM) rate against the US dollar, with the crowd’s expectations and how each one turned out.
Open forecasts
- Petrol price: Will Dangote cut its petrol gantry price below ₦1,300 per litre by 12 November?
- Will the naira's official NFEM closing exchange rate reach or exceed ₦1,360 per dollar on at least one trading day between November 5 and November 20, 2026?
- Will the CBN's published Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) reference rate for the US dollar reach or exceed ₦1,400 per dollar on any trading day between November 3 and November 30, 2026?
- Will the Central Bank of Nigeria cut its benchmark interest rate below 25% before December 31, 2026?
What Nigerians expected vs what happened
- Will the official naira exchange rate fall below ₦1,300/$ before October 31? — outcome NO
- Will the parallel-market naira fall below ₦1,340/$ before Oct 12? — outcome NO
- Will the parallel-market dollar rate move above ₦1,400 before September 30? — outcome YES
- Will the naira weaken further against the US dollar at the official FX market before 31 August? — outcome NO
- Will NAFEM FX turnover exceed $1.5 billion before 11:59 PM WAT on August 31, 2026? — outcome YES
- Will the official USD/NGN exchange rate rise above ₦1,370 before August 15? — outcome NO
- Will the average retail price of cooking gas (LPG) increase above current August levels in Nigeria before August 25, 2026? — outcome YES
- Will any major fuel marketer in Nigeria increase petrol pump prices by at least ₦50/litre before August 31, 2026? — outcome YES
- Will at least three of the following marketers—NNPC Retail, MRS, Ardova, TotalEnergies, and Mobil—display pump prices above ₦1,000 per litre at Lagos stations before 11:59 PM WAT on August 10, 2026? — outcome YES
- Will Nigeria’s gross external reserves increase between July 15 and July 31, 2026? — outcome YES
- Will petrol prices in Nigeria decrease before 1 August 2026? — outcome YES
- Will Dangote Refinery's reported shift toward dollar-denominated petrol sales trigger a formal response from the Federal Government or regulators before 28 July 2026? — outcome YES
- Will the price of a 50kg bag of rice decline in at least three major Nigerian cities before 30 July 2026? — outcome YES
- Will the Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics release new inflation data showing a decline in headline inflation compared with the previous month? — outcome NO
- Will the CBN issue a new circular affecting banks, foreign exchange, or financial institutions within the next 72 hours? — outcome NO
- Will the official naira exchange rate remain below ₦1,500/$ through July 15, 2026? — outcome YES
- Will the open-market naira rate weaken past ₦1,420/$ before Monday June 22, 2026? — outcome NO
- Will there be any noticeable improvement in dollar liquidity in Nigeria’s parallel market within the next 72 hours, as a secondary reaction to global oil market developments and improved supply expectations? — outcome NO
- Will global oil price volatility (±3% daily movement) translate into any noticeable change in FX sentiment or pricing pressure in Nigeria within the next 72 hours following geopolitical developments (Iran–US deal expectations) — outcome YES
- Will petrol sell below ₦1,000 per litre in Lagos before July 31, 2026? — outcome NO
- Will the Nigerian Naira strengthen below ₦1,550/$ in the official market before June 12? — outcome YES
- Will any tier-1 Nigerian banking stock rise ≥5% on June 10 driven by news or inflows (not index movement)? — outcome NO
- Will 1kg of LPG (cooking gas) in Lagos exceed ₦2,500 before June 12? — outcome YES
- Will the Naira close stronger than ₦1,340 to the dollar on the official market today (May 22)? — outcome NO
- Will the official Naira exchange rate close ABOVE ₦1,385/$1 on the NAFEM window by the close of business on Wednesday, May 13? — outcome NO
- Will the NGX All-Share Index close NEGATIVE (red) today, Wednesday, April 22, as investors react to the cabinet shake-up? — outcome NO
- Will the successful bid rate at today’s Central Bank of Nigeria FX auction drop below ₦1,300, signaling a deliberate regulatory push to strengthen the naira? — outcome NO
- Will the naira officially break below the ₦1,350/$ support level on the NAFEM window this Monday as banks scramble for liquidity? — outcome NO
Daily Forecasts · Petrol price · Naira to dollar · Inflation · Food prices · Nigerian football · Power supply